Does an oath stipulating abstinence for a whole year except for one instance establish *Ila'* immediately?

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If a husband says, "By God, I will not have intercourse with you for the year except once," he does not establish *Ila'* immediately because he can engage in intercourse whenever he wishes without breaking the oath. He only becomes one who has established *Ila'* if he has intercourse when more than four months of the year remain. This is the position of Abu Thawr, the People of Opinion (Ahl al-Ra'y), and the apparent position in the Madhhab of Al-Shafi'i.