Tafsir of At-Tawbah 9:39

"If you do not go forth, He will punish you..."

"If you do not go forth"—meaning, if you do not emerge for that to which the Messenger of Allah (may Allah Almighty bless him and grant him peace) has called you to emerge for.

"He will punish you"—meaning, Allah (Mighty and Majestic is He), "with a painful punishment"—by way of destruction through a terrible cause, such as drought or the triumph of an enemy. Some have restricted the punishment to the Hereafter, but this is baseless. Others have generalized it, considering the act of destruction within it so that the conjunction of His statement—Exalted is He—"and He will replace you"—becomes valid.

"And He will replace you"—meaning, He will replace you after your destruction with a people other than you. He described them as being different from you to emphasize the warning and to intensify the threat, by indicating a difference in description and essence which necessitates total eradication. This means: a people who are obedient, preferring the Hereafter over the worldly life, who are neither your children nor your kin. They are the sons of Persia, as Sa'id ibn Jubayr said, or the people of Yemen, as narrated by Abu Rawq, or a group that encompasses both, as chosen by some verifiers.

"And you will not harm Him at all"—meaning, you will not harm Him in any way, nor cause Him any damage. The pronoun refers to Allah (Mighty and Majestic is He), meaning: your reluctance to support His religion does not undermine Him in the slightest, for He—Glory be to Him—is free of need from everything and in every matter. It is said: the pronoun refers to the Messenger (may Allah Almighty bless him and grant him peace), for Allah (Mighty and Majestic is He) promised him protection and victory, and His promise—Glory be to Him—is inevitably fulfilled. The first view is what is narrated from al-Hasan, and it was chosen by Abu Ali al-Jubba'i and others. The second view is supported by the fact that the subsequent pronoun refers to him (peace be upon him) by consensus.

"And Allah is over everything competent"—so He is capable of destroying them and bringing forth another people. It is also said: He is capable of replacing [you] and altering the circumstances and granting victory without your assistance. Thus, the sentence serves to complete what preceded it and to pave the way for what follows it.